AMEX Market Report

The Government has now delayed economic recovery until 2014 having changed its forecast for growth of two-tenths of a recession of 0.5% of GDP by 2013, which adds an unemployment rate of 24.3% of the population active.

This is the macroeconomic picture which made spending ceiling for next year and has today approved the Council of Ministers as a basis for the following general state budget.

With the anticipation of a fall of 0.5% of the activity in 2013 met the forecast made last week the prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, who has already made it a closer look to agencies like the International Monetary Fund ( IMF), falling from 0.6% of GDP by 2013.

Is improved slightly but the forecast for 2012 and provides for a 1.5% drop in activity compared to 1.7% previously.

The Minister of Finance and Public Administration, Cristobal Montoro, admitted today in a press conference after the Council of Ministers that “is not winning much,” but also stressed that the recession of 2013 will be “softer” than today.

He stressed that the data used are consistent with what is observed in the economy so far this year, and has refused to be optimistic that the government is doing “a very strong adjustment in Spain” and budgets ” not to exacerbate the recession. ”

As regards the unemployment rate worsens three tenths the data, 2012 to 24.6%, and one tenth that of 2013, to end at 24.3% of the workforce.

In contrast, the Executive set better prospects for 2014 (23.3% versus 23.4% previously) and 2015 (21.8% vs. 22.3%).

As for the spending ceiling amount to 126.792 million euros, a rise of 9.2% over the previous year, although the ministries will be reduced their budget by 12.2%.

Montoro explained that the maximum elevation of this spending is that in 2013 you will pay a “heavy burden” of interests, of 9.114 million euros, as a result of public debt and the market situation.

In addition, the State contribution to Social Security is above last year of 6.683 million euros in order to meet the obligations it has in the system.

Of the 6.683 million, 4.628 million correspond to the payment of non-contributory pensions, minimum complement and family protection unit and 235 million to 19 million to other contributions.

Montoro has stressed that for the first time, the expenditure ceiling has consequences for the communities, because they will work from these data to establish their own limits as well.

The Government also planned to the regions to achieve a surplus of 0.2% of GDP in 2015 compared with a mere budget balance they assumed so far that year.